earnings-preview

SKILL.md 节选

# earnings-preview

## Purpose

Build **全球上市公司（美股/港股/A 股为主，兼顾其他市场）季报/年报前瞻分析**, preparing for company earnings releases with scenario frameworks and key metrics to watch.

## Data Sources

用 `valuz-stock` 定档期 + 取历史财务基线，用 `valuz-search` 取一致预期/指引/电话会/公告。

> **Symbol format**: `valuz-stock` 用裸代码（`AAPL` / `00700` / `600519`）；`valuz-search` 用 `market:ticker`（`US:AAPL` / `HK:00700` / `SH:600519`）。

- **`valuz-stock`** — 财报日程、历史财务、指标数值数据。
- **`valuz-search`** — 一致预期/前瞻、指引、电话会、公告、纪要检索。

```python
# valuz-stock — 裸代码 (AAPL / 00700 / 600519)
earnings_calendar(symbol="AAPL")                      → 下次财报档期、报告期
income_statement(symbol="AAPL", period="quarterly", limit=8)  → 历史营收/利润/EPS 趋势
revenue_breakdown(symbol="AAPL", period="quarterly")  → 分部/分产品收入结构
company_overview(symbol="AAPL")                       → 估值、PE/PB、市值
stock_quote(symbol="AAPL")                            → 当前价、交易区间
# valuz-search — market:ticker (US:AAPL / HK:00700 / SH:600519)
reports_search(query="一致预期 前瞻", symbols=["US:AAPL"])  → 卖方一致预期、前瞻研报
conferences_search(symbols=["US:AAPL"])               → 上次电话会指引
news_search(query="业绩预告 指引", symbols=["US:AAPL"]) → 近期催化、指引新闻
filings_search(symbols=["US:AAPL"])                   → 业绩预告、公告
earnings_search(symbols=["US:AAPL"])                  → 历史财报披露文档
```

### Consensus Estimates

- 一致预期/前瞻用 `reports_search`(valuz-search，`query="一致预期"` 或 `"前瞻"`)。
- **If consensus unavailable**, derive from:
  - 历史增速基线：`income_statement`(valuz-stock)
  - 上次指引：`conferences_search`(valuz-search) 取电话会指引
  - Industry benchmarks

### Secondary Sources (via `valuz-search`)
- 公司公告/业绩预告 (earnings preview notices) — `filings_search`
- 历史财报披露文档 — `earnings_search`
- 卖方研报/前瞻 (broker research) — `reports_search`
- 电话会指引/纪要 (earnings call) — `conferences_search`、`minutes_search`
- 近期催化/指引新闻 — `news_search`

## Workflow

### Step 1: Establish Baseline

先用 `earnings_calendar`(valuz-stock，裸代码) 确认下次财报档期与报告期；历史基线用 `income_statement`(valuz-stock，`period="quarterly"`, `limit=8`)，收入结构用 `revenue_breakdown`(valuz-stock)。

**Historical performance (last 4-8 quarters):**

| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net Income | YoY | EPS | Net Margin |
|---------|---------|-----|------------|-----|-----|------------|
| Q1 2024 | | | | | | |
| Q2 2024 | | | | | | |
| Q3 2024 | | | | | | |
| Q4 2023 | | | | | | |

**Identify trends:**
- Accelerating or decelerating growth?
- Margin expansion or compression?
- Seasonal patterns?
- One-time items to normalize?

### Step 2: Gather Consensus Estimates

一致预期与前瞻用 `reports_search`(valuz-search，`query="一致预期"`/`"前瞻"`, `symbols=["US:AAPL"]`)；上次管理层指引用 `conferences_search`(valuz-search)；近期指引/预告新闻用 `news_search`(valuz-search)。

**Consensus table:**

| Metric | Q1 2024 Estimate | Range (Low-High) | # Analysts |
|--------|-----------------|-------------------|------------|
| Revenue | | | |
| YoY Growth | | | |
| Net Income | | | |
| EPS | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | |
| Net Margin | | | |

**Beat probability assessment:**
- Strong beat (>+10%): Company has history of under-promising
- Moderate beat (+5% to +10%): Consensus well-established
- In-line (-5% to +5%): Typical range
- Miss risk (<-5%): Macro headwinds, order delays

### Step 3: Identify Key Metrics to Watch

**Company-specific KPIs:**

For each company, identify 3-5 metrics that will drive the report:

| Metric | Why It Matters | Watch Threshold | Risk if Missed |

SKILL.md 不止这些内容，安装后可阅读全文。

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