dcf-model

SKILL.md 节选

# DCF Model Builder

## Overview

This skill creates institutional-quality DCF models for equity valuation following investment banking standards. Each analysis produces a detailed Excel model (with sensitivity analysis included at the bottom of the DCF sheet).

## Tools

- Default to using all of the information provided by the user and MCP servers available for data sourcing.

## Critical Constraints - Read These First

These constraints apply throughout all DCF model building. Review before starting:

**Sensitivity Tables:**
- Populate ALL 75 cells (3 tables × 25 cells) with full DCF recalculation formulas
- Use openpyxl loops to write formulas programmatically
- NO placeholder text, NO linear approximations, NO manual steps required
- Each cell must recalculate full DCF for that assumption combination

**Cell Comments:**
- Add cell comments AS each hardcoded value is created
- Format: "Source: [System/Document], [Date], [Reference], [URL if applicable]"
- Every blue input must have a comment before moving to next section
- Do not defer to end or write "TODO: add source"

**Model Layout Planning:**
- Define ALL section row positions BEFORE writing any formulas
- Write ALL headers and labels first
- Write ALL section dividers and blank rows second
- THEN write formulas using the locked row positions
- Test formulas immediately after creation

**Formula Recalculation:**
- Run `python recalc.py model.xlsx 30` before delivery
- Fix ALL errors until status is "success"
- Zero formula errors required (#REF!, #DIV/0!, #VALUE!, etc.)

**Scenario Blocks:**
- Create separate blocks for Bear/Base/Bull cases
- Show assumptions horizontally across projection years within each block
- Use IF formulas: `=IF($B$6=1,[Bear cell],IF($B$6=2,[Base cell],[Bull cell]))`
- Verify formulas reference correct scenario block cells

## DCF Process Workflow

### Step 1: Data Retrieval and Validation

Fetch data from MCP servers, user provided data, and the web.

**Data Sources Priority:**
1. **MCP Servers** (if configured) - Structured financial data from providers like Daloopa
2. **User-Provided Data** - Historical financials from their research
3. **Web Search/Fetch** - Current prices, beta, debt and cash when needed

**Validation Checklist:**
- Verify net debt vs net cash (critical for valuation)
- Confirm diluted shares outstanding (check for recent buybacks/issuances)
- Validate historical margins are consistent with business model
- Cross-check revenue growth rates with industry benchmarks
- Verify tax rate is reasonable (typically 21-28%)

### Step 2: Historical Analysis (3-5 years)

Analyze and document:
- **Revenue growth trends**: Calculate CAGR, identify drivers
- **Margin progression**: Track gross margin, EBIT margin, FCF margin
- **Capital intensity**: D&A and CapEx as % of revenue
- **Working capital efficiency**: NWC changes as % of revenue growth
- **Return metrics**: ROIC, ROE trends

Create summary tables showing:
```
Historical Metrics (LTM):
Revenue: $X million
Revenue growth: X% CAGR
Gross margin: X%
EBIT margin: X%
D&A % of revenue: X%
CapEx % of revenue: X%
FCF margin: X%
```

### Step 3: Build Revenue Projections

**Methodology:**
1. Start with latest actual revenue (LTM or most recent fiscal year)
2. Apply growth rates for each projection year
3. Show both dollar amounts AND calculated growth %

**Growth Rate Framework:**
- Year 1-2: Higher growth reflecting near-term visibility
- Year 3-4: Gradual moderation toward industry average
- Year 5+: Approaching terminal growth rate

**Formula structure:**
- Revenue(Year N) = Revenue(Year N-1) × (1 + Growth Rate)
- Growth %(Year N) = Revenue(Year N) / Revenue(Year N-1) - 1

**Three-scenario approach:**
```
Bear Case: Conservative growth (e.g., 8-12%)
Base Case: Most likely scenario (e.g., 12-16%)
Bull Case: Optimistic growth (e.g., 16-20%)
```

### Step 4: Operating Expense Modeling

**Fixed/Variable Cost Analysis:**

Operating expenses should model realistic operating leverage:
- **Sales & Marketing**: Typically 15-40% of revenue depending on business model

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